Football 301 Playbook: Sights set on the HarBowl and how much-improved Chargers can challenge Ravens

Football 301 Playbook: Sights set on the HarBowl and how much-improved Chargers can challenge Ravens

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John and Jim Harbaugh face off because the Ravens tackle the Chargers in Los Angeles on Monday Night time Soccer this week. (You’ll be able to be part of me and fellow Yahoo Sports activities NFL author Charles McDonald for the sport within the new Dialogue software within the Yahoo Sports activities app. This is how.)

The Chargers are surging behind disciplined and well-coached items on both facet of the ball, whereas the Ravens are thriving with an explosive offense (that hit its yearly Steelers velocity bump) and a protection that’s stout in opposition to the run however is prone to massive performs by way of the air.

Heading full steam forward into this season’s HarBowl (one thing we would get extra incessantly with each brothers now teaching groups within the AFC), I wished to take this week’s Soccer 301 Playbook to interrupt down the stunning Chargers and the way their matchup with the Ravens seems to be this week.

I hope you’re sitting down when studying this, as a result of what I’m about to say is perhaps stunning: The Chargers below Jim Harbaugh prefer to run the ball and use play motion.

Ol’ Jimmy and offensive coordinator Greg Roman aren’t precisely subverting their status of their first 12 months in Los Angeles. The Chargers rank fifth in designed rush fee on early downs and have the very best fee of play motion on early downs as properly.

Whereas that is Harbaugh’s (and the Harbaugh-adjacent Roman’s) tried and true system, the Chargers haven’t precisely been efficient when operating the ball. They presently sit thirtieth in early down success fee on operating again runs, with their 29.7% fee sitting properly under the NFL’s common of 36.1% on such performs. Even should you take a look at splits between the halves of video games or over the previous six weeks, the Chargers nonetheless rank among the many league’s worst when it comes to success fee.

There have nonetheless been flashes with this run recreation in between their 1- and 2-yard ventures. A more healthy J.Okay. Dobbins (who’s dealing with his previous group this recreation) has had some actual flashes, popping massive runs in key moments when the Chargers are closing out video games within the second half. (Whereas they haven’t been environment friendly, the Chargers do rank extra in the midst of the pack in explosive RB runs this season, and eighth in explosive run fee within the second half of video games.) It is a reminder of the expertise of the oft-injured Dobbins and that there’s nonetheless life with these runs as the sport goes alongside.

It’s one thing that has popped in a number of Chargers video games this 12 months, together with this previous Sunday night time in opposition to the Bengals as Dobbins delivered the knockout punch late within the fourth quarter.

This could result in irritating sequences for the Chargers, who rank twenty sixth in common distance to go on third downs, and their all-world QB to beat (extra on him in a second), but it surely’s one thing I attribute extra to their inside offensive line play than any specific dangerous play designs. Their run recreation is diverse (a bit of extra window dressing wouldn’t damage), that includes loads of hole schemes with pulling linemen and tight ends, typically out of larger personnel groupings.

There have been sequences in video games the place you possibly can see the Chargers discover a play that an opposing protection merely can not cease, like operating a zone play in opposition to the Titans time and again with their fullback/defensive lineman Scott Matlock main the way in which. (Travis Hunter who?)

So, whereas I do have positives to say in regards to the designs and intent, the reality is that this offense nonetheless leaves Herbert in loads of powerful conditions when the Chargers need to drop again and move. And Herbert, regardless of statistics which are extra center of the highway when trying league-wide, has been taking part in a few of the finest and most aggressive soccer of his profession.

On early downs, the Chargers are in a position to keep explosive due to their regular weight loss plan of play-action ideas, with Herbert not shying away from launching throws to gamers like tight finish Will Dissly — not precisely a burner — for touchdowns.

Play-action ideas that the Chargers function naturally assault down the sphere, and Herbert has been looking for extra downfield throws than ever however nonetheless with out making errors (only one interception on the season to date). His air yards per move try sits at 8.6, over a full yard greater than his profession common of seven.4 yards getting into this season and tied for eighth (with Lamar Jackson) amongst all qualifying QBs this season.

These play-action ideas enable Herbert to point out off his arm and ball placement. Each throw and a part of the sphere is obtainable to him on any kind of idea. These assist shore up a leaky inside offensive line in addition to put much less calls for on move catchers to win with their route operating. Simply get downfield and Justin will launch a laser into your facemask.

This newfound aggressive Justin Herbert has additionally proven up when he runs the ball. Herbert is scrambling greater than ever, seeking to make performs along with his legs somewhat than verify the ball down or attempt to discover the “excellent” reply. His scramble fee of 6.3% could be a profession excessive, based on NextGenStats, and sits above the league common. He’s additionally searching for explosive performs when he runs the ball. Whether or not it’s the fourth down designed run in opposition to the Titans or scrambling in opposition to the Bengals. Herbert needs to inflict harm as a runner. Which is a scary sight for defenders to see a 6-foot-6, almost 240-pound human who can max out at over 20 mph coming at them.

That is Justin Herbert with a Jim Harbaugh symbiote connected to him. Herbert feels like he has a bit of extra venom along with his play this 12 months. Gone are the fast recreation ideas from former OC Joe Lombardi that neutered Herbert’s S-tier arm expertise. As an alternative, Herbert is looking for to push the ball at any time when he can, even with less-than-ideal personnel round him. It’s not stunning that Herbert’s sack fee has jumped up a bit this season due to the asks of the offense, however his sack avoidance nonetheless stays one in all his finest attributes, and he continues to frustrate defenders along with his capability to get throws off regardless of being of their grasp.

And when issues aren’t clear (which they nonetheless aren’t a good quantity of the time), Herbert remains to be overcoming subpar circumstances to ship massive throws …

… in addition to maximizing the margins that he does get.

The emergence of rookie broad receiver Ladd McConkey has been thrilling to look at, particularly with the chemistry that he already has with Herbert. McConkey seems to be like an actual deal No. 1 receiver who can win from the slot or on the surface (my pre-draft comparability for him was Emmanuel Sanders). McConkey is coping with an harm this week, so it stays to be seen what his well being is in opposition to the Ravens, however even the unwavering confidence that Herbert has with different gamers like Dissly and Quentin Johnston, who has enormously improved after his tough rookie 12 months, has been exhibiting up as properly.

And never as soon as did we ever hear about Justin Herbert’s excessive ankle sprain hindering his play. Humorous how that solely comes up with sure QBs.

The Ravens’ protection will proceed to be powerful sledding for the Chargers on the bottom. Baltimore is Guinness-like in its stoutness in opposition to the run, presently rating second in EPA allowed per RB run whereas yielding the bottom explosive run fee within the NFL. The Ravens have solely allowed six explosive runs (good points of 12 yards or extra) this whole season. For comparability, the NFL common is 17.4 and the Commanders lead the league on this class with 29.

The Chargers are going to have to show to these play-action ideas on early downs and Herbert hero ball on late downs. The Ravens are below-average defending early down play motion and are general prone to explosive performs by way of the air. Very prone, I ought to say; Baltimore presently permits the third-highest fee of explosive passes this season, typically due to communication errors on the again finish of their protection. The backbone of the protection might even be additional weakened if linebacker Roquan Smith doesn’t play. Smith has taken a step again this season, however him coping with a hamstring harm and doubtlessly lacking this week might make this weak point much more obvious.

Harbaugh and Roman have an insistence to not mess with their run-first system, which I get contemplating their personnel. But when there was a recreation to drop Herbert again extra incessantly and let him rip, that is it.

This facet of the ball is a real strength-on-strength.

The Chargers’ protection taking part in so properly below Jesse Minter has been one of many nice surprises of the season. This unit ranks close to the highest of each metric you take a look at. And even regardless of dealing with a number of toothless offenses this season, it nonetheless ranks tenth in FTNFantasy’s DVOA metric that adjusts for opponent.

Star veterans Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack, and Derwin James appear to be their previous selves (when wholesome, a minimum of), with James offering impression performs each recreation from the slot, particularly as a blitzer. Free agent additions Poona Ford and Teair Tart have shored up an inside line of defense that had been one of many largest weak factors in your entire NFL over the previous few seasons.

Younger gamers Tuli Tuipulotu (six pressures in opposition to the Bengals) and Daiyan Henley have leveled up this season and proceed to get higher each week. Henley particularly has been a revelation on this protection.

Even non-star starters like linebacker Denzel Perryman have been taking part in the perfect ball of his profession. This Chargers protection performs sound, with adaptable recreation plans that mildew and shift based mostly on their given opponent of the week.

When there’s a unit punching above its weight, or seemingly getting the perfect out of all its contributors, it often is indicative of the teaching and game-planning that’s occurring in the course of the week on prime of the work the gamers put into it. The Chargers’ protection simply feels tight. Zones tighten, protection defenders will fall off their authentic assignments anticipating the place the ball will probably go based mostly on the scouted seems to be, defenders (at all times a number of) shortly rally to deal with ball carriers. Each recreation encompasses a new strain look, whether or not an actual blitz or simulated, and move rush plans that attempt to expose any weak point within the opposing group’s safety plan.

Twists, loopers, slants. Video games is what it’s usually referred to as in soccer parlance. The Chargers throw all of those video games at opposing offensive strains and move protectors with their proficient entrance, testing the principles and sheer capability that the opposing squad has within the trenches, within the backfield, and on the alternative sideline, poking and poking and hoping one thing will pop. Most NFL offenses merely don’t have the competence to carry up for 60-plus performs earlier than letting some leakiness occur, and the Ravens’ offensive line isn’t any totally different. (On a sidenote, I’m actually trying ahead to seeing Ravens middle Tyler Linderbaum in opposition to Ford and Tart.)

On early downs, the Chargers run zone coverages on the second-highest fee within the NFL, with the featured protection altering based mostly on the matchup on this kaleidoscopic scheme. Typically you will note Chargers defenders leaping to alter their leverage when defending passing performs, generally in ways in which appear unorthodox. It is a signal of a well-coached and well-scouted unit that is aware of easy methods to pinpoint an opponent’s tendencies. That works very properly in opposition to groups missing high-end expertise, however may be preyed upon in opposition to groups that may execute or have a deeper bag of methods to get to (just like the Bengals in Week 11).

The heavy use of zone coverages makes much more sense when you think about the personnel for the Chargers. This unit’s power is alongside their entrance and never with their cornerbacks. Regardless of blitzing on the eighth-lowest fee on early downs, the Chargers rank third in strain fee. Bosa, Mack, and Tuipulotu are a formidable group of move rushers to cope with. While you drop in different robust contributors like Tart and Morgan Fox, the Chargers can carry warmth after the QB with out having to throw additional our bodies on the downside. The Chargers lean into zone, make QBs work to search out a solution, hope their move rush can get house and likewise mitigate any protection disadvantages they may have on the again finish.

It’s to not say that they don’t blitz in any respect. The Chargers prefer to throw in funkier seems to be on true passing downs like second-and-long or on third down once they need to create extra chaos, and so they carry strain at round a league common fee on late downs. However given Lamar Jackson has been the finest QB in opposition to the blitz this 12 months, that blitz fee shall be unlikely to climb after this week. (Jackson is 78 for 111 for 1,091 yards, 10 touchdowns and two interceptions in opposition to the blitz this season. He’s generated 50.1 EPA when groups carry 5 or extra move rushers. Jared Goff ranks second at 36.1.)

The Chargers’ soundness carries over when defending QB designed runs. They haven’t been examined with many, however when taking part in QBs like Kyler Murray, the Chargers defenders did an incredible job in staying disciplined in opposition to learn performs. There’s a tradeoff right here when taking part in such particular zone coverages that can put a number of eyeballs on receiver route patterns: scrambles. The Chargers rank twenty seventh within the quantity of EPA they’ve allowed to QB scrambles this season and have allowed the third-most scramble yards per recreation, solely behind the Jaguars and Giants. As a result of the Chargers prefer to match their coverages and can bracket receivers on passing downs (with a nook and security primarily double-teaming one participant), the opposing QB has possibilities to make performs along with his legs if the move rush can’t preserve him contained because the protection defenders are so targeted on their assignments.

Early downs in opposition to the Ravens must be actually attention-grabbing, contemplating how devastating the Ravens have been. The Chargers make it a slog to run in opposition to, however that’s to not say you possibly can’t catch them. They presently rank twenty sixth in explosive run fee allowed and are going in opposition to Derrick Henry, Jackson, and a run recreation that may pop off at any time.

The Chargers are additionally third in opposition to early down play motion when it comes to success fee allowed, which once more speaks to the horses they’ve up entrance and the self-discipline on the again finish to keep away from catastrophic busts. Jackson and the Ravens are wonderful on play-action performs, rating second in success fee and EPA per dropback on early down play motion ideas this season and seventh in yards per recreation off these passes, per TruMedia.

That’s what makes this facet of the ball so intriguing. The Ravens’ offense is explosive, environment friendly, and electrical. The Chargers have a proficient entrance and are very well-coached in any respect three ranges. There are a great deal of strength-on-strength areas and matchups between the 2 sides, which is usually entertaining as a result of good performs will really feel earned in any such recreation. Each groups will mildew their recreation plans based mostly on the opponent, attending to their core performs in several methods or throwing in new twists for the opponent to cope with.

How they use their personnel is an attention-grabbing subplot; the Ravens love trotting out their TEs and FB Patrick Ricard (they use personnel groupings with two or fewer WRs on the second-highest fee within the NFL), at all times threatening to steamroll a protection in the event that they don’t need to match with larger our bodies. The Chargers, nevertheless, run dime personnel (six DBs) on the second-highest fee within the NFL and the very best fee when opposing offenses have two or fewer WRs on the sphere (14.5%, and no different protection is above 5%). And, considerably counterintuitively, they’ve been good at defending larger offensive personnel groupings too, which once more speaks to the adaptability, effort, and execution this whole unit has performed with this season.

I shall be curious if the Ravens resolve to make use of Henry on a RB display a couple of times on this recreation as a option to decelerate the move rush, and likewise because it’s such a power of Henry’s juggernaut-like operating type. The Chargers, once more due to their hyper-focused protection duties, have been prone to massive performs in opposition to RB screens this season. They’ve solely confronted 9 to date, however have allowed good points of 15, 37, 18, and 33 yards on these performs. Henry had 23 display receptions in his final two seasons in Tennessee, with these going for 341 yards at a crisp 14.8 yards per play. Henry has solely been used on two screens to date this season, however these good points have, after all, gone for 27 and 23 yards. Search for this as a option to catch the Chargers in one in all their line of defense video games and heavy zone coverages, giving Henry some area beneath.

The Chargers below Jim Harbaugh have fully mirrored his persona, and it’s palpable once you watch them. They play powerful, they play onerous, they play sensible, and so they play disciplined, with gamers on either side of the ball taking part in to their fullest (and some stars dropped in). They’ve benefitted from a not-particularly-difficult schedule to date, however have proven up in opposition to the higher items and groups once they have confronted them. They usually even have a QB taking part in at a excessive degree and extra aggressive than ever.

The Ravens even have a type of high-level QBs, among the best offenses within the recreation and a protection that has actual strengths (however a number of obvious weaknesses). Chargers followers had been as loud as I’ve ever heard them this previous weekend in opposition to the Bengals on Sunday night time. This Monday night time HarBowl has loads of causes to crank these decibels up much more.

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